Subscribe to RSS
DOI: 10.1055/s-0037-1622058
Evaluation of the validity of the FRAX® algorithm for predicting risk of osteoporotic fracture in Iran
Evaluierung der Validität des FRAX®-Algorithmus zur Berechnung des Risikos einer osteoporose -bedingten Fraktur im IranPublication History
received:
28 August 2014
accepted after revision:
09 March 2015
Publication Date:
02 January 2018 (online)
Summary
Objectives
The present study was designed to determine the most applicable FRAX® model for the Iranian population. Methods: Seventy four men and women (with the mean age of 70 years), who had experienced at least a fragility fracture in their life, along with 162 individuals with no such an experience (with the mean age of 66 years), were enrolled in this study. Fracture probabilities were calculated using FRAX® models from Jordan, Lebanon and the US.
Results
We found a significant difference in the probability rate between the fracture cases and the controls; the rate, however, was lower than the recommended threshold for intervention, especially for the Lebanese and the Jordanian models.
Conclusion
As for women all the three models had a good discrimination value, while the Lebanese and the Jordanian model needed to be revised. As for men, on the other hand, the Jordanian model had a low discriminative value. The Lebanese model, despite its acceptable discrimination value, needed a revision regarding its threshold. The US model was the most compatible.
Zusammenfassung
Studienziele
Diese Studie wurde konzipiert, um zu bestimmen, welches FRAX®-Modell für die iranische Bevölkerung am besten geeignet ist.
Methoden
In diese Studie wurden 74 Männer und Frauen (Durchschnittsalter: 70 Jahre) eingeschlossen, die in ihrem Leben mindestens eine Fragilitätsfraktur erlitten haben, sowie 162 Personen ohne derartige Frakturen (Durchschnittsalter: 66 Jahre). Die Frakturwahrscheinlichkeiten wurden anhand der FRAX®-Modelle von Jordanien, dem Libanon und der USA berechnet.
Ergebnisse
Wir haben signifikant unterschiedliche Wahrscheinlichkeiten bei den Frakturfällen und Kontrollen festgestellt. Die Rate war jedoch insbesondere bei den libanesischen und jordanischen Modellen niedriger als die empfohlene Interventionsschwelle.
Schlussfolgerung
Für Frauen hatten alle drei Modelle einen guten Diskriminationswert, allerdings mussten das libanesische und jordanische Modell überarbeitet werden. Für Männer hatte das jordanische Modell jedoch einen niedrigen Diskriminationswert. Beim libanesischen Modell musste trotz des akzeptablen Diskriminationswerts die Schwelle überarbeitet werden. Das US-Modell war am besten geeignet.
-
References
- 1 Holroyd C, Cooper C, Dennison E. Epidemiology of osteoporosis. Best Practice & Research Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 2008; 22 (05) 671-685.
- 2 Kanis J, Odén A, Johnell O. et al. The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women. Osteoporosis international 2007; 18 (08) 1033-1046.
- 3 Kanis J, Burlet N, Cooper C. et al. European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Osteoporosis international 2008; 19 (04) 399-428.
- 4 Kanis J, Oden A, McCloskey E. et al. A systematic review of hip fracture incidence and probability of fracture worldwide. Osteoporosis international 2012; 23: 2239-2256.
- 5 Sterling RS. Gender and race/ethnicity differences in hip fracture incidence, morbidity, mortality, and function. Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® 2011; 469 (07) 1913-1918.
- 6 Acharya M, Almedeghio S, Harper W. Ethnic variation in epidemiology and survival of hip fracture. Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery, British Volume 2011; 93 (Supp I): 33-34.
- 7 Lee DY, Lim SJ, Moon YW. et al. Determination of an applicable FRAX model in Korean women. Journal of Korean medical science 2010; 25 (11) 1657.
- 8 Cooper C, Campion G, Melton LJ. Hip fractures in the elderly: a world-wide projection. Osteoporosis international 1992; 02 (06) 285-289.
- 9 Maalouf G, Gannage-Yared M, Ezzedine J. et al. Middle East and North Africa consensus on osteoporosis. Journal of Musculoskeletal and Neuronal Interactions 2007; 07 (02) 131-143.
- 10 The Middle East and Africa regional Audit. Epidemiology, costs and burden of osteoporosis in 2011. http://www.iofbonehealth.org/sites/default/ files/PDFs/Audit%20Middle%20East_Africa/ Middle_East_Africa_audit.pdf (Last accessed February 16, 2015)
- 11 Bliuc D, Alarkawi D, Nguyen TV. et al. Risk of subsequent fractures and mortality in elderly women and men with fragility fractures with and without osteoporotic bone density: The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study. J Bone Miner Res 2015; 30 (04) 637-646.
- 12 Mithal A, Bansal B, Kyer CS, Ebeling P. The Asia Pacific Regional Audit-Epidemiology, Costs, and Burden of Osteoporosis in India 2013: A report of International Osteoporosis Foundation. Indian J Endocrinol Metab 2014; 18 (04) 449-454.
- 13 Kanis J, McCloskey E, Johansson H. et al. Development and use of FRAX® in osteoporosis. Osteoporosis international 2010; 21: 407-413.
- 14 Spuler B, Marcinkowski MI. Persian historiography and geography: Bertold Spuler on major works produced in Iran, the Caucasus, Central Asia, India, and early Ottoman Turkey. Pustaka Nasional Pte Ltd; 2003. multiple pages and back cover..
- 15 Rahnavard Z, Zolfaghari M, Hossein-nezad A, Vahid MDastgerdi. The incidence of osteoporotic hip fracture: Iranian Multicenter Osteoporosis Study (IMOS). Res j Biol sci 2009; 04 (02) 171-173.
- 16 Sandhu S, Nguyen N, Center J. et al. Prognosis of fracture: evaluation of predictive accuracy of the FRAX® algorithm and Garvan nomogram. Osteoporosis international 2010; 21 (05) 863-871.