Download PDF
Semin Reprod Med 2015; 33(01): 005-010
DOI: 10.1055/s-0034-1395272
Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Global Fertility and Population Trends

John Bongaarts
1   Population Council, New York, New York
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

Publication Date:
07 January 2015 (online)

    Permissions and Reprints

Abstract

Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends.

Keywords

population - fertility - projection - policy
 

  • References

  • 1 United Nations. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations; 2013
    Google Scholar
  • 2 Bryant J. Theories of fertility decline and the evidence from development indicators. Popul Dev Rev 2007; 33 (1) 101-127
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 3 Notestein F. Economic problems of population change. In: Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economists. London: Oxford University Press; 1953: 13-31
    Google Scholar
  • 4 Notestein F. Population—the long view. In: Theodore W. Schultz, ed. Food for the World. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press; 1945: 36-57
    Google Scholar
  • 5 Ezeh AC, Bongaarts J, Mberu B. Global population trends and policy options. Lancet 2012; 380 (9837) 142-148
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 6 Alexandratos N. Countries with rapid population growth and resource constraints: issues of food, agriculture, and development. Popul Dev Rev 2005; 31: 237-258
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 7 Birdsall N, Kelley AC, Sinding SW , eds. Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2001
    CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • 8 World Bank. World Development Indicators Data bank
    PubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 9 Urdal H. A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence. Paper presented at: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development; July 21–22, 2011; New York
    PubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 10 Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND; 2003
    CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • 11 Susheela S, Darroch JE. Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits of Contraceptive Services—Estimates for 2012. New York: Guttmacher Institute; 2012
    Google Scholar
  • 12 Cleland J, Bernstein S, Ezeh A, Faundes A, Glasier A, Innis J. Family planning: the unfinished agenda. Lancet 2006; 368 (9549) 1810-1827
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 13 Cleland J, Phillips JF, Amin S, Kamal GM. The Determinants of Reproductive Change in Bangladesh: Success in a Challenging Environment. Washington, DC: World Bank; 1994
    Google Scholar
  • 14 Joshi S, Schultz TP. Family planning as an investment in development: evaluation of a program's consequences in Matlab, Bangladesh. Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 951. New Haven: Yale University; 2007
    Google Scholar
  • 15 Bongaarts J, Cleland J, Townsend J, Bertrand J, Das Gupta M. Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design. New York: Population Council; 2012
    Google Scholar
  • 16 Bongaarts J. What Can Fertility Indicators Tell Us about Pronatalist Policy Options?. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2008; 39-56
    PubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 17 Luci-Greulich A, Thévenon O. The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. Eur J Popul 2013; 29 (4) 387-416
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 18 Caldwell J, Caldwell P, McDonald P. Policy responses to low fertility and its consequences: a global survey. J Popul Res 2002; 19: 1-24
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 19 Gauthier A. The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature. Popul Res Policy Rev 2007; 26: 323-346
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  • 20 McDonald P. Low fertility and the state: the efficacy of policy. Popul Dev Rev 2006; 32: 485-510
    CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar