PBC-Mayo Risk Score is predictive of oesophageal varices in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Aims PBC-Mayo Risk Score is a prognostic model that includes clinical and biological features at baseline. It was developed to predict survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Mayo score in predicting oesophageal varices (OV).

Methods We conducted a single-centre retrospective study including patients followed-up for PBC from 2000 to 2021. We collected biological and endoscopic findings at diagnosis. We excluded patients who did not undergo upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. PBC-Mayo Risk Score was calculated via an online calculator. Diagnostic performance was assessed using ROC-curve analysis and area under the curve (AUROC).

Results There were 37 patients of mean age 57.3±4.6 years and 97.3% female. Nineteen patients (51.4%) were cirrhotic at diagnosis. Seventeen patients (46%) had OV and only 2 patients with OV had no cirrhosis. Higher Mayo risk score was associated with OV presence with an AUROC of 0.81 and p value of 0.001. An optimal cut-off of 3.5 predicted OV with 100% sensitivity, 55% specificity, 65% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, 76% diagnostic accuracy, a positive likelihood ratio of 2.22 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.

Conclusions PBC-Mayo risk score was predictive of OV with mainly good sensitivity and negative predictive value. It helped rule out PBC patients not likely to have OV.

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Artikel online veröffentlicht:
14. April 2023