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Int J Sports Med 2022; 43(09): 773-782
DOI: 10.1055/a-1673-6829
Training & Testing

Prediction of Distance Running Performances of Female Runners Using Nomograms

Lucie Lerebourg 
1   UFR STAPS, CETAPS, Université de Rouen-Normandie, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France
,
Brice Guignard
1   UFR STAPS, CETAPS, Université de Rouen-Normandie, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France
,
Ghazi Racil
2   Physiology, Université de la Manouba Institut Supérieur du Sport et de l'Éducation Physique de Ksar Saïd, Manouba, Tunisia
,
Mohamed Chedly Jlid
2   Physiology, Université de la Manouba Institut Supérieur du Sport et de l'Éducation Physique de Ksar Saïd, Manouba, Tunisia
,
Eric Held
3   Orthodynamica, Clinique Mathildle II, Rouen, France
,
Jeremy Bernard Coquart
1   UFR STAPS, CETAPS, Université de Rouen-Normandie, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France
4   Uninv, Lille, Univ, Artois, Univ. Littoral côte d'Opale, ULR 7369 - URePSSS - Unité de Recherche Pluridiscplinaire Sport Santé Société, Lille, France
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Abstract

This study examined the validity, precision and accuracy of the predictions of distance running performances in female runners from three nomograms. Official rankings of French women for the 3000-m, 5000-m, and 10 000-m track-running events from 2005 to 2019 were examined. Only female runners who performed in the three distance events within the same year were included (n=158). Each performance over any distance was predicted using the three nomograms from the two other performances. The 3000-m, 5000-m and 10 000-m performances were 11min17 s±1min20 s, 19min29 s±2min20 s, 41min18 s±5min7 s, respectively. No difference was found between the actual and predicted running performances regardless of the nomogram (p>0.05). All predicted running performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient (p<0.001; r>0.90). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were acceptable because, whatever the nomogram, they were less than or equal to − 0.0±6.2% on the 3000-m, 0.0±3.7% on the 5000-m, and 0.1±9.3% on the 10 000-m. The study confirms the validity of the three nomograms to predict track-running performance with a high level of accuracy. The predictions from these nomograms are similar and may be used in training programs and competitions.

Key words

estimation - modeling - time to exhaustion - validity - female athletes


Publication History

Received: 08 April 2021

Accepted: 14 October 2021

Accepted Manuscript online:
19 October 2021

Article published online:
25 April 2022

© 2021. Thieme. All rights reserved.

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